Category : football betting
Category : football betting
with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.
I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed.
Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet. In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around. Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.
Minnesota Vikings (20-1)
You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.
Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.
After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.
The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.
Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.
Atlanta Falcons (80-1)
Denver Broncos (25-1)
Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)
The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.
New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)
Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)
Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)
Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)
New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)
If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. The schedule is tough and front-weighted. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. But the talent is there to take a flier.
Other potential future-book plays
Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide.
If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), Go Here
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There is a very similar rule applicable to betting: before you gamble, the three most important considerations should be Selection, Selection and Selection!
The only way to guarantee a sure-fire win for yourself when gambling is if you could place a bet on a 100% certainty carrying a 100% commitment of being paid when you win. You can’t buy a good Betting Strategy, although it may well be true that the individual components themselves can be purchased. . Note that not all gambles are bets. Once you have acknowledged that satisfying such a need is vital to your betting success, you then have to work hard at (i) finding a good Selection System and (ii) deciding upon an appropriate Staking Plan that best suits your particular style and budget (and which won’t bankrupt you – because many have the potential to do so). The main point here is that a bet is just one particular form of gambling, and it’s only the degree of risk that varies from one gamble to another. This is because the phrase “to take a gamble” generally means to risk something valuable in order to gain something of even greater value, and where the outcome is uncertain to some degree or other.
When it comes to gambling on the outcome of sporting events, every well-balanced person will readily acknowledge that it is not worth risking all their funds on one single bet, as they could very easily end up with no funds at all. Let’s face it though – that scenario will never arise in your entire lifetime!
To achieve even a modest return on your bets, you need to develop a worthwhile Betting Strategy for yourself. Consequently, at the end of each season, the majority of football bettors are poorer than when they started.
Each type of gamble has its own unwritten rules attached, all of which need to be both understood and followed if the specific gambling objective is to be achieved.
As playing roulette will show you (because inherently it doesn’t allow the possibility of a Selection System to operate, since any given number or colour can come up at any time), very few Staking Plans on their own will consistently allow you to increase the amount you started with (meaning that you are simply in the hands of Lady Luck on the night). As you can see, therefore, all the foregoing are forms of gambling, no matter that some people may attempt to draw dividing lines between them to make their preferred form of gambling more socially acceptable. This means that if location fails on any single point, you have not found a “star” property.
A worthwhile Betting Strategy incorporates both a reliable Selection System and a sound Staking Plan. In respect to the latter, remember that the three prime considerations to ensure a first-class investment are Location, Location and Location.
Now, before we discuss “betting to win” in more detail, let’s begin by examining what a “bet” actually is. The sad truth, though, is that most bettors fail to achieve even that modest aim, mainly because their betting is not based on sound principles. In view of this, I am now going to make what I consider to be the single most important statement in respect to “Betting to Win”:
For example, you gamble not-so-obviously (and do not bet) whenever you lay out money in the simple hope of retaining your wealth (such as buying a house or putting your savings into a higher paying deposit account) and rather more obviously when you attempt to increase your wealth by investing in shares (again not a bet) or by participating in sports betting.
It seems that a majority of bettors would be happy to achieve a small overall return on their bets by the end of a sporting season, generally because the alternative is to sail too close to the wind too often and be in constant danger of losing their entire bank. Both the acceptance of the need for a worthwhile Betting Strategy and the will to apply it properly must emanate from within you. So that you can emerge as a winner, I strongly recommend that you should approach football betting just as seriously as you would when investing in shares or a house purchase. This principle applies whether or not the odds are in the bettor’s favour. A bet is a gamble based on the possibility of a particular event occurring or having occurred.
All too often, bets are placed on “gut feel”, and frequently for wildly varying stakes (as opposed to “fixed” (or “level”) stakes, without proper assessment of the chances of winning, or without adequate consideration as to how a loss will affect the bettor’s bank. To be able to bet requires two parties: the party placing the bet and the party accepting the bet. A gamble need not involve another party, but a bet most certainly does Go Here